According to the domestic development of China's textile industry and the situation of imports and exports in 2016, there may be three major trends in the development of China's textile industry in the future. Enterprises in the domestic textile industry need to recognize the current domestic situation in China in the next few years. And the international situation, in the author's opinion, the situation may not be optimistic, let's look at the analysis. Cotton (13900, 5.00, 0.04%) resource supply tends to focus more on "domestic cotton" and less on "foreign cotton". From the current situation of cotton resource supply in 2016, the state vigorously promotes the entry of reserve cotton and real estate cotton into the market, while foreign cotton such as the United States Imports of cotton, Indian cotton, and Australian cotton are restricted. On the one hand, due to the limited quality of cotton that these foreign cotton can provide to domestic textile enterprises, Chinese enterprises mainly import C/A, EMOT, SJV, and other varieties of a high-quality, high-grade cotton. In addition, several major alliances led by the United States have imposed trade restrictions on China, and the United States has given priority to the import of American cotton to the signatory countries, including Vietnam, Pakistan, Turkey, Indonesia, Mexico, and other countries. (With their remaining American cotton, even the editor thinks that it is not necessary) Indian cotton is one of China's main import resources, but due to Pakistan's crazy demand for Indian cotton, the price of Indian cotton has soared, which is a cost for Chinese textile enterprises. It's not worth it.
Judging from the cotton market conditions of various countries in 2016, cotton resources are still relatively tight. Most of the cotton produced in various countries is used for self-selling, and exports will be weaker. Fortunately, from the perspective of spinning and matching cotton, high-quality Xinjiang cotton + real estate cotton + national reserve cotton can fully meet the needs of spinning mills. In addition, the planting area of long-staple cotton has increased greatly, and domestic textile mills are dependent on Australian cotton and American cotton. further decline. If foreign trade barriers to China remain or expand, China is likely to produce and sell its cotton. At present, some industry experts have realized the problem of cotton production, and the R&D and production of improved cotton varieties have been put on the agenda. The government will give strong support to the domestic textile enterprises' demand for cotton.
The export of cotton textiles may be more severe. In 2016/2017, China's textile and garment enterprises encountered more severe "encirclement, interception" and suppression from Europe, America, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and other countries. According to customs statistics, my country's cotton exports in July increased by only 2.16% year-on-year. , an increase of 0.17% month-on-month, coupled with uncertainties such as exchange rate fluctuations, interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, and economic deflation, the export of high-count yarns, high-count, and high-density grey fabrics, and clothing is not optimistic. According to the international political situation, the relationship between China and developed countries such as the United States is not stable enough. The United States is trying to win over other countries to set up various obstacles to China's economic development. In the first half of this year, 12 countries including the United States, Japan, Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam formally signed the TPP agreement in Auckland, New Zealand. These 12 countries together account for 40% of the global economy, more than the European Union, which has seriously affected the development of foreign trade in my country's textile industry. The textile industry may undergo structural adjustment. According to customs statistics, from September 2015 to July 2016, my country imported 890,000 tons of foreign cotton, a year-on-year decrease of 700,000 tons or 44%; from January 2016 to July 2016 The accumulated import of foreign cotton was 525,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 527,000 tons, or a decrease of 51%. China's import volume "dives", which surprised many foreign businessmen and large and medium-sized import enterprises. Many small trading companies and middlemen such as Qingdao, Zhangjiagang, and Guangzhou have switched to importing yarn, and chemical fiber or closed stores for transfer. Enterprises in the textile industry have put forward severe tests. The instability of enterprises has increased the risk of cooperation, which is not conducive to the healthy and benign development of the textile industry. The international relationship between China and other countries in the world seriously affects the nerves of the domestic textile industry. If China can gain a greater right to speak in international trade, it will be of great benefit to the stability and development of the domestic textile industry. Whether the G20 summit can make progress on trade issues is very interesting.
To sum up, the future development of China's textile industry is facing multiple difficulties, and the situation is not optimistic, but it is not necessary to be too pessimistic. , enterprises should always pay attention to the national policies and market conditions and make timely adjustments.